US Crude Production to Hit Record 13.41 Million Bpd in 2025 Before Falling, EIA Says

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a monthly report on August 12, 2025, projecting U.S. crude oil production to reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, driven by improved well productivity. However, the report anticipates a decline to 13.28 million bpd in 2026, marking the first production drop since 2021. This reduction is attributed to lower oil prices impacting the world’s largest producer.

The EIA forecasts Brent crude prices to average $51 per barrel in 2026, down from a previous estimate of $58 per barrel. This follows a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production levels. The EIA noted: "Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026."

U.S. crude output in 2024 stood at 13.21 million bpd. Producers faced challenges including economic uncertainties and rising supply quotas from OPEC+, alongside ongoing international developments. Last month, the EIA had estimated U.S. production at 13.37 million bpd for both 2025 and 2026.

Lower crude prices are expected to reduce retail petroleum product prices. The EIA predicts U.S. retail gasoline prices will average below $2.90 per gallon in 2025, a decrease of approximately 20 cents per gallon from 2024.

Distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. are projected to decline by 14% in 2025, reaching the lowest end-of-year level since 2000, driven by increased exports and demand. Limited refinery capacity and sustained export demand will keep inventories stable in 2026.

U.S. oil demand is expected to grow to 20.4 million bpd in 2025, consistent with prior estimates, and rise slightly to 20.5 million bpd in 2026, compared to an earlier projection of 20.4 million bpd.

In a separate development, Danish wind farm developer Orsted announced on August 11, 2025, a $9.4 billion rights issue, citing challenges in the U.S. offshore wind market.